Written by Joseph Axisa
In June 2016 the United Kingdom held a referendum to determine whether the country was to leave the European Union, which the UK joined in 1973.
72.2% of the country’s electorate voted in this referendum, amounting to a total of about 33 million votes. 52% of the UK citizens voted to leave the EU whilst 48% voted to remain. The majority of the votes to leave the EU were found in England and Wales, whilst every council in Scotland saw the majority of its voters voting to remain in the European Union.
The following year, in March 2017, the Government sought to express the will of the British people by triggering Article 50 of The Treaty on European Union, which states that “any member state may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements”. Furthermore, this Treaty provision states that the Union is to negotiate an agreement with the State, taking into account a framework for the future relationship between the Union and the exiting State.
The United Kingdom settled on a withdrawal agreement with the European Union in November 2018. This agreement mainly relates to the primary concerns of the electorate, those being trade and law amongst others. The withdrawal agreement is regarded by some as being a transitional agreement intended to make the exit from the European Union as smooth as possible for the withdrawing member state.
In an ideal world The United Kingdom would have exited the European Union by the 29th of March with a transitional period lasting until the end of 2020. In this period the United Kingdom would not be present within the governing entities of the European Union, however it would still have the obligations of any other EU member state, such as the obligation to act within the parameters of European Union law.
The withdrawal agreement acceded to by The British Government and The European Union has been recently referred to as ‘The Deal’. The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Theresa May was the protagonist behind this deal. However, it has suffered a massive defeat in The House of Commons. 432 members of parliament voted against the deal whilst 202 members of parliament voted in favour. This amounted to it being the largest defeat for a sitting government in the history of The British Parliament. The primary issue with the withdrawal agreement is that the UK has to pay upwards of 40 billion euros to settle its obligations with the Union. This has been criticized due to the fact that the financial statement involves a large sum of money being paid to the Union without any guarantee regarding the future relationship between the UK and the EU.
The Government then tried to pass the same deal for a second time through the house, which led to its second rejection by another overwhelming majority with 391 MPs voting against the deal and 242 MPs voting in favour.
Speculations have arisen as to whether Theresa May can table her deal for a third time. The Speaker of The House of Commons John Bercow eliminated the possibility of this by citing an archaic parliamentary precedent dating back to the 17th century which is laid down in the book by Thomas Erskine May on parliamentary procedure. Speaker John Bercow stated that a motion which is the same or substantially the same cannot be tabled again in parliament. However, Speaker John Bercow also stated that if the government was to bring a new proposition which was neither the same, nor substantially the same to that voted down on the 12th of March then this would be permissible within the parliament.
On the 21st of March 2019 Prime Minister Theresa May attended a summit in Brussels where she negotiated an extension for the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union. The goal was to delay the Brexit date until June 2019, however she was only granted an extension until 12th April 2019.
These are the current state of affairs, however there are other options for the United Kingdom. The Labour Party’s leader Jeremy Corbyn has stated in a continuous manner that the best situation for the United Kingdom is for a second referendum to be held. His argument is that throughout this 2 year period the citizens of the UK have seen the consequences that a withdrawal from the European Union holds. The United Kingdom can still terminate BREXIT proceedings if a referendum in favour of remaining in the European Union materialises. This termination can be done by the revocation of Article 50 which would terminate the BREXIT proceedings.
The United Kingdom can indeed leave without a withdrawal agreement, however this is not desired. Leaving the European Union without a suitable and efficient withdrawal agreement would mean that the 21 month transition period would be inapplicable and unnecessary. A No-Deal situation does not only lead to a poor political relationship between the Union and the UK, but it would also lead to massive uncertainty in the UK with regards to business and day to day life.